Is Success Skill or Luck?
In a NASA astronaut selection process for 11 spots out of 18,300 applicants, simulations show a startling reality. If you model the selection criteria as 95% skill and 5% luck:
- The Winners are Lucky: The 11 selected astronauts had an average luck score of 94.7 out of 100.
- The Swap: 9 or 10 of the 11 people selected would be different if luck were removed from the equation.
- Skill is the Floor: To even be in the conversation, you need to be in the top 0.1% of skill.
At the elite level, everyone has “maxed out” their skill, making the variance in skill negligible. This turns a tiny 5% luck factor into the primary tie-breaker. You can watch the full breakdown here.
Preparation meets Opportunity
If luck plays that important role in success, how to be more lucky?
Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
- Preparation is the Build: It’s the late-night coding sessions, the deep market research, and the constant iteration on your MVP. It’s building a foundation of resilience and domain expertise when the market doesn’t even know you exist.
- Opportunity is the Hustle: It isn’t just a lucky break; it’s about active participation. It means sending the 100th cold email, pitching to skeptical investors, and facing rejection often. The more doors you knock on, the higher the probability that one will eventually open.
When the discipline of building meets the persistence of the hustle, it looks like an “overnight success” to the outside world.
Three ways to be a “luckier” entrepreneur:
- Ship daily. The more you ship, the more surface area you create for luck to strike. High velocity equals high probability.
- Build in public. Sharing your journey, your wins, and your failures attracts the right co-founders, investors, and early adopters.
- Keep your “stack” ready. A polished deck, a working demo, and a clear vision statement remove friction for the next big opportunity.
Luck is not a miracle. It is readiness with timing.
Make the build a habit, keep knocking on doors, and give luck a bigger target to hit.